Thabo Mbeki and ANC's bad dreams
By Said Adejumobi*
The dangerous power struggle in the ANC in South Africa has reached its climax with the decision by the party that president Thabo Mbeki is being recalled from office, implying he should resign and step down from power. Mbeki, realizing that he is trapped, and has lost out in this deadly power game, has accepted to resign. He has chosen the path of honour, which is coming a little too late, too far.
This move by the party, the leadership of which is completely dominated by the Zuma caucus, is a pre-emptive strike to clear the way for Zuma's ascendance as the president of the country. The apprehension may possibly be that the transition may not be smooth if Mbeki remains in power, especially after the victorious court case on corruption charges against Zuma. Since both personalities (Mbeki and Zuma) seem set for 'mutual assured destruction', the Zuma group is quite unsure whether there are no other plots in the offing to clip Zuma from getting to power.
Between now and next year, other corruption cases may be digged out; some other funny things may happen which may prove damaging to Zuma. The best option was to strike the 'enemy' at its weakest and play the final power game-get rid of Mbeki himself before he could contemplate any other sinister move. With a transitional leader in power, who may likely be from the Zuma group, the deal would have been sealed for Zuma as the crowned king of South Africa. The strategy is a deadly political masterstroke!
Mbeki made costly mistakes in the recent politics of power. He allowed his emotions and anger to override his political calculations. His determination to stop Zuma from succeeding him took a better part of him in a bitter but unnecessary personality struggle. The initial steps of Mbeki were wrong, and so were the follow-ups. In the first instance, the removal of Jacob Zuma from office as Vice president of South Africa on allegations of corruption was wrong. Under the rule of law, a suspect is deemed to be innocent until found guilty. At the worst, Zuma should have been suspended from office pending investigation into the allegations against him. But Mbeki wanted to please some constituencies, which were not necessarily members of his party by showing that he is a tough guy on corruption, he therefore removed him. This was the departure point.
The populist Zuma used the period of his exit from public life to continue to do quietly what he knows how to do best -political mobilisation. Zuma linked up with all the dissatisfied members of the party, who had been previously shrugged off by Mbeki, and began to construct a new pan-South African ANC identity. Winnie Mandela, Cyril Ramaphosa, and others came together again, to organise for internal change in the power structure of the party. The move resonated well with the cadres of the ANC mostly the youth wing who had felt alienated in the governance of the country and did not feel that the party was living up to its liberation promises of economic redistribution and empowerment in South Africa. The democratic coup against Mbeki was hatched! Zuma knows that politics and democracy are game of numbers; they could sometimes be the tyranny of the majority, yet that is the nature of western liberal democracy.
Mbeki's second fatal step was his decision to compete for the presidency of the ANC again, at the twilight of his political career. After serving as president of South Africa for two consecutive terms, what did Mbeki want again from ANC's presidency? The popular explanation is that Mbeki wanted to stop Zuma at all cost from becoming the president of the ANC, which almost automatically positions him to be Mbeki's successor as president of South Africa. Mbeki possibly felt that he was the only person who could challenge Zuma and stop him. Political delusion, so it was. Zuma flawed Mbeki in a very disgraceful way, and assumed the leadership of the party. Not only that, the Zuma group clinched all the party positions available during the elections.
A wise and strategic political move that Mbeki should have made after his defeat at the party presidential elections was to close the conflict and reconcile with Zuma. The reality of power had changed; power had moved to the Zuma group. Perhaps, some false voices urged Mbeki to fight on to the last. They possibly ill advised him that the president in Africa is omnipresent and can't be wrong. Mbeki decided to reopen the corruption case against Zuma hoping to nail him on this and end his dream for the presidency. This was a serious political misadventure. Cleared from this, Zuma and his group went for the jugular -Mbeki should go before the end of his tenure!
There are two sides to the end of Mbeki's presidency in South Africa. The first side is a sad one that a leader in Africa, who believed in, and worked for African regeneration and rebirth, has to leave power in this manner. Mbeki is not accused of stealing, committing war crimes or crimes against humanity, but simply a victim of internal party political struggle, which unfortunately he unleashed himself. Mbeki in my view does not deserve to exit power in this ignoble way. He probably deserves to end his tenure next year in a peaceful, glorious way.
The other side to the Mbeki story is a good commentary on the politics and democracy of South Africa. It shows that democracy with all its imperfections of majoritarian tyranny is well and alive in South Africa. It shows that a leader should not be above his party, which placed him in office. A leader should work within the confines, policies and actions of his party. The way Mbeki acceded to the call of his party to quit office is a testimony that Mbeki remains a disciplined ANC party member! Some other leaders will have called the bluff of the party and use state machinery to unleash terror on party members and the country without any qualms of the consequences.
I am not sure whether the ANC will come out of this unfortunate incident stronger and better. I strongly do not think so. I think the party is over-exerting its political capital and dominance, and may actually be on the descent rather than progress. It thus appears that deep internal fissures and crises are unfolding in the party, which if not well managed by the Zuma group may splinter the party into pieces.
Despite his travails, Mbeki is one of those African leaders I respect very dearly. He is intellectually sound, quite articulate and engaging. He may not be a grassroots political mobiliser; it could also be true that he has lost touch with the masses in South Africa, but this does not demean his love and commitment to improve the living standards of the South African people. Mbeki's limited capacity to transform South Africa and promote economic empowerment of the disadvantaged black majority is not for want of trial or of his own failings; Mbeki was confronted with powerful social forces, which overwhelmed him, which were relics of the apartheid system.
I was in South Africa for the first two years of Mbeki's rule. Mbeki came to power with a lot of vibrancy and commitment to economic redistribution and the empowerment of disadvantaged groups. He was filled like Zuma is now, with populist clichés! But the reality is, there is a racial distribution of power in South Africa-the blacks control political power, the whites control the economy. Mbeki's clichés did not resonate well with the managers of the economy; they fiercely resisted him. For almost about six months, the media turned against Mbeki portraying him as 'another African leader' who has come to destroy their 'civilized western' country.
Different negative acronyms were used to describe Mbeki in media headlines- 'emergent dictator', 'new south African tyrant', 'destroyer of the economy' etc. Unfortunately, the ANC could not build a powerful pro-poor reform constituency to support Mbeki and counteract the media attack on him. Invariably, Mbeki could not bear the pressure, he eventually succumbed. Indeed, confused and disoriented, Mbeki had to invite the World Bank team including the then World Bank president, to visit the country and assess his management of the economy. Of course, the Bank encouraged him on to pursue a neo-liberal economic agenda, which defeated the dream of a better life for the poor average South African. Zuma is reaping from that disaffection today.
Jacob Zuma may get to power and shortly realise that it is not that rosy, as his populism tends to suggest. He would have to make tough and difficult choices. He would either choose to side with the interest of capital, alienate himself from the people and become unpopular as happened to Mbeki, or take some radical pro-poor stance and incur the wrought of local and international capital. The latter group is more powerful, better organized and can blackmail the leadership of most developing countries. Whichever option Jacob Zuma chooses, his job is well cut out for him.
As Mbeki steps down, I lend my voice to acknowledge a pan-African leader and statesman, with commitment and dedication to the African project. South Africa has benefited most from Mbeki's pan-Africanism. His African renaissance reconnected South Africa with other parts of the continent and paved the way for South African companies to establish in all parts of the continent. Mbeki may be on the cross today, but his actions and policies have benefited his country at a national level. History beckons on Jacob Zuma!
* Dr. Adejumobi lives in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.This piece was originally published in the Guardian Newspaper Nigeria
Rise and fall of Thabo Mbeki
By Martin Plaut*
Thabo Mbeki was born into one of the leading families of the African National Congress.
His father - Govan - was a stalwart of both the ANC and the Communist Party.
Thabo spent his early years in the rural Transkei. His father was often away on party business and he worked in the family store while he went to school.
At 14, Thabo Mbeki joined the ANC, and the party became his life. He left South Africa in 1962, travelling to Tanzania before going on to Britain where he studied economics at Sussex University.
He was a popular figure, although his contemporaries remarked that he was always somewhat aloof.
In 1970, Thabo Mbeki went to the Soviet Union for military training and then on to the Zambian capital, Lusaka, where he was integrated into the exile structures of the ANC.
He served the movement in Botswana, Swaziland and Nigeria before returning to Lusaka to become political secretary to the party's leader, Oliver Tambo.
In 1985 Mr. Mbeki was a member of a delegation that opened secret talks with South African businessmen and leading Afrikaners - paving the way for the unbanning of the ANC and the end of apartheid.
In May 1994, he became deputy president under Nelson Mandela.
It was Mr. Mbeki who chaired the key committee that negotiated the controversial $5bn (£2.7bn) deal to modernise the country's defence force.
It was a deal that was to haunt both him and the country - with allegations of corruption against leading ANC members, including its current leader, Jacob Zuma.
African diplomacy
In December 1997 Mr Mbeki succeeded Mr Mandela as ANC leader. He became president two years later - winning a second term in 2004. As leader of South Africa, he has had his fair share of strengths and weaknesses.
He was widely criticised for his unexplained stand on HIV and Aids, when he supported alternative treatments rather than backing medical advice.
Thabo Mbeki holds the hand of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe (R) at Harare airport on 21 July 2008.
Mr Mbeki has been both praised and criticised for his action on Zimbabwe
His stand on Zimbabwe was also attacked, when he resolutely refused to openly pressurise President Robert Mugabe, insisting that quiet diplomacy would yield results.
This week his stand finally paid dividends when a power-sharing deal was agreed.
Mr. Mbeki's stand on other African issues won wide support - with his vision of an African Renaissance.
Under his leadership, South African troops went into Darfur and supported peace operations in Burundi. He backed efforts to bring peace to the Democratic Republic of Congo and - less successfully - in Ivory Coast.
But it was his role at home that caused Thabo Mbeki's downfall.
Many within the ANC believed he was an inveterate plotter, and many had the scars to prove it.
Now Thabo Mbeki has been made to pay the price.
*The Author is BBC Analyst from where this piece was gratefully culled
